The New America

In the previous episode I tried to anticipate trends leading to the United States 2028 elections.  My hope for American democracy is that the progressive forces will then take control of government. That, however, is just the beginning.  It will be time for them to renovate their constitution. 

Transcript

The New America

I’m Patrick Esmonde-White. Welcome to Canada Re-imagined, After the Cataclysm

It is March 2026. Iran was recently attacked, and war through the Middle East is spreading.  In the previous episode, given the circumstances to our south, I tried to anticipate trends leading to the United States 2028 elections.  My hope for American democracy is that the progressive forces will then take control of government. That, however, is just the beginning.  It will be time for them to renovate their constitution. 

This episode: The New America

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As a lame duck, Trump will plot to govern for life. He fears justice. 

It does seem unlikely he will survive long enough to experience justice, given his diet of junk food, and a lifetime of anger. But as long as he is President, he will build monuments to his own glory. He will try to control his cult. He will demand the media gild his reputation. He will believe his own lies.

This is his great delusion: that he can release the four horsemen of the apocalypse, without consequence. War, civil strife, famine and death. Everything will go from bad to worse: war, economy, climate, disease. The resistance will fight to survive, and be bloodied in return. 

In the end, good will triumph. We cannot think otherwise. The 2028 American election will be determined by the old-fashioned issues of jobs and inflation, scandal and corruption, and by whether the world is a safer place. It will not be more safe. The democrats will win.

In the meantime, war, climate catastrophes, economic disruption and unexpected events will not pause. The cataclysm is underway, inevitable and unstoppable.

As this unfolds, Canada must play a careful game. The United States is currently hostile. Like it or not, Canada will always be tied at the continental hip to the United States. On one hand, Mr. Carney must avoid provoking Trump, and drawing his ire. On the other hand, Canada demands independence and sovereignty. 

Canada has already angered Trump by boycotting American goods and travel. Canada's military plan to build more weapons at home will rankle him. But as domestic conflict consumes Americans, the chance that Canada will be invaded should drop. Canada has three years to survive, to strengthen the economy, and build national unity. Trump will be gone in three years or less. Canada simply needs to outlast him, and to quote Charlie Angus, Canada has "got this".  

Survival of a sovereign Canada until a 2028 Democrat Presidency, however, does not end the cataclysm. The threats facing the United States, Canada and the world do not disappear. Climate change, war, the threat of AI run amok, poverty and refugees, and a host of other issues still remain.  

There is, however, reason for hope.  Canadians know and love Americans. Our countries are different, but for decades we have been close friends and  neighbours. We share much in common. There will be no absolute trust for years to come, but so long as democracy wins, time will eventually heal the wounds.  There is also potential for Canada to speed that healing process.

I have spoken of the need for constitutional renovation in Canada. Let me quickly touch on the American equivalent. In their case, it will require a bolder reconstruction. For if anything stands out in the past decades in America, it is the need to fix an antiquated constitution that has been cemented in place by the idea of originalist legal thinking. 

How hard will constitutional chang in the USA be? For over a century the United States tried and failed to pass an amendment to their constitution that would extend equal rights to women. Constitutional renovation is nearly impossible in the USA. 

The current crisis, the cataclysm, may however open the door to a different approach. That is, there may be novel ways to use the constitution in the process of reconstruction. By reconstruction, I refer not to the constitution, but to the institutions of government that make a democracy and economy function.

The early drafts of an American blueprint for reconstruction should already be underway in think tanks and academic halls. We should expect the Democrats to take a page from the Republicans, and craft an action plan for the day a new President controls the White House. Like the Republican plan, it would be very specific, very deliberate. Trump has already created the precedent for dramatic action using Executive Orders. Previous Presidents had a reluctance to use powers such as this.  A new President will need to be bold.

The Trump destruction of long-established government departments can be seen as an opportunity for a comprehensive reorganization. The reconstruction of government, and of trust in institutions, will take years. But reconstruction may also have positive results. Experts, who were thrown out of office, have had time to think about the future. They will have ideas about how to rebuild organizations without the flaws of the past.

The Democrats might well re-invent how government works, using work-from-home and AI.  Changes could be made to hiring and firing, following close constitution with the unions. This is the type of modernisation that the Carney government has failed to deliver. It may require a different concept of how carers work, with a Guaranteed Living Income, for example. It will be a time for Americans to consider bold ideas, and Canada may just offer examples.

We would expect the Department of Homeland Security to be broken up into component departments, and ICE to be dramatically reformed.  The Justice Department will be returned to its status as an arms-length agency.  

The new administration would issue clear instructions to prosecute, but not persecute, those who broke laws in an effort to undermine democracy, or who used their positions for profit. 

As an observation, after the first American Civil War, Confederate soldiers were not offered pardons, but were required to swear an oath of allegiance in exchange for leniency. Those who broke the oath could still be prosecuted.

One challenge a Democrat administration is sure to take on involves the excessive wealth of a small few. On this, Canada can play a supporting role in dealing with the robber-barons of the new gilded age.  Anti-trust legislation everywhere is in need reform, but the dangerous monopoly over key industries is an international problem. 

This is especially true of media giants that use secretive algorithms to profit from anger, hate, misogyny, child exploitation, conspiracy and disinformation. Countries all around the world are starting to find common cause in controlling the techno-beast. Europe, Australia and others have led. Canada has been threatened, and is especially vulnerable. But if Canada joins with other democracies, we are in a good position to engage Americans in the movement.  

The American tax system would be revised, and it too is part of a global economy. Money flows to tax havens. Most American know that loopholes in their tax system designed by lobbyists should be closed.  A way of taxing the ultra-rich must be found. 

Some solutions are fairly easy. Many billionaires declare little taxable income, since their wealth is in ownership not wages. They take massive loans with their corporate shares as collateral, they use the loan as if it were income, but tax free.  

Another  major challenge for democracies is that the wealthy use tax havens, often small countries that can be bought off. It would take an international agreement to rid the global economy of this legal tax avoidance. Canada, Europe and other democracies could have in place a new agreement to close the loopholes. The new American administration would be invited to join as part of their penance.  

This global agreement should also include a total ban on crypto-currency. It has never been more a tool for criminals and a scam to fleece the ignorant.  

There is an endless list of things a new American administration could do. But it will alway runs into a wall. The American Constitution, and the political system it defines, is obsolete, corrupt, and nearly impossible to change.  

True, there are a change that do not need a constitutional amendment in order to make a difference. These have been floated on the fringes of political debate. Let me touch on a few.

One concept involves the voting system, and the problem of gerrymandering in the House. The Constitution gives state legislatures control over how elections are run in each state, but (and I quote), "the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations." 

The simple fix for gerrymandering would be for Congress, signed by the President, to require states to use proportional representation at the state level.  That would eliminate gerrymandering. It would lead to additional political parties, and an end to the two-party system.  It would also end up in the courts, likely to die at the Republican controlled Supreme Court.

This would in any case not solve the issue of unequal Senate representation. 

California has two Senators and 40 million people. Fourteen "empty" states have less than two million people each, but also get two Senators.  These empty states play a key role in selecting Supreme Court judges, and stacking the Court with extreme conservatives. The Senators from the empty states, mostly MAGA, will be able to stop almost legislation from passing even if the Democrats win in 2028. 

The American Supreme Court, as Republican stronghold, has bent judicial theory to favour a political philosophy. It support Trump's authoritarian powers. It often uses the so-called "shadow docket" to hide their bias, making decisions with no explanation. When a Democratic does become President, these same judges will be reverse the decision without explanation.  

. During the next three years, two aging judges, Thomas and Alito, will likely retire. Trump fill try to fill the seats with young conservative extremists.  The court will set out to make reconstruction impossible.  

Can anything be done?

The Democrats could try to pack the court, adding four judges. Franklin Roosevelt thought about the idea, but concluded it would be a terrible precedent.  Then any President would do it. It won't fly.

The new government controlled by Democrats could create a special Constitutional Court to interpret the constitution, taking that task away from the Supreme Court. But to create this court, the constitution would have to change. That won't fly either.

They could create a lesser Constitutional Court, which simply has a role to advise Congress and the President on constitutional issues. Their decisions would not be binding. The Supreme Court would still have the final say. So nothing would really change. 

In short, American reconstruction after the cataclysm is in a pickle. The Supreme Court can block change.  Senators from the empty states can block change. 

Some Americans have suggested playing a wild card. They have mulled the idea of states seceding from the union, or even joining Canada.  

The dilemma for Americans is that the legal path to secede requires a two-thirds vote by both Houses of Congress, and ratification by three-quarters of the states. The empty states alone could block this.  Change would die on the vine, just like the Equal Rights Amendment for women's equality died over the past century.

The other option is armed rebellion. That would be going from the frying pan to the fire.

However... there is a more subtle tactic that might just work. 

This tactic is based on what happened to start the first Civil War.  Historically, the Confederate states declared independence in order to protect slavery, immediately after Lincoln won the presidency. Lincoln himself did not declare war to stop them. He mobilised for war only after the Confederate army attacked Fort Sumpter. Had the south not attacked the union base, history would have taken a different course. It might have led to war. It equally might have led to negotiation.

Imagine, then, that in January 2029 the Democrats take control over White House, and Congress as well.  Everything they try will be blocked by the filibusters in the Senate, and by the Supreme Court. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

 In anticipation, a number of Democrat-leaning states hold secession referendums, and win support to leave the union. Congress and the President could then simply put the constitution in a bottom drawer, and negotiate the terms of separation. The President declares it to be a political issue, not a legal one. He ignores the Court. The military does nothing, because the President, as Commander in Chief, gives the order to protect the nation from foreign enemies only. 

That idea, that separation is a political rather than legal issue, is what the Canadian Supreme Court said with respect to the Clarity Act on Quebec separation. It seems obvious.

The states that did secede would then draft a new American constitution.  What might it look like?

It would probably be very similar to the current one, but renovated to address pent-up demand for change and modernisation. Because it is based on the existing document, it would feel comfortable. Some sections, such as a section on quartering of soldiers, could be dropped as antiquated. Other sections or amendments, like the ERA, might be added.

Voting for the House of Representatives might use to proportional representation at the state level. 

The empty states might be allotted one Senate seat. The largest states might get three Senate seats. This re distribution would still favour small states, but less dramatically.

The office of President might be elected by national vote totals, instead of the antiquated electoral college. The vote might include a ranked choice ballot.

A new constitution should clarify the right to privacy, so a woman has control over her own body.

It should have language to address the role of information technology, AI and social media.  

It might follow Canada's example, and acknowledge Indigenous treaties.

It might create a Constitutional Court, with independent judges whose job is to address constitutional issues quickly and consistently. The Supreme Court would remain the final court of appeal for cases arising through the justice system. 

The Second Amendment (gun rights) might be clarified to allow regulation of weapons of mass destruction, while giving states the authority to regulate weapons for sport and personal protection.

In short, the brilliant document that worked for two and a half centuries is obsolete, and needs renovation. But the bones of the document are good.

With a new constitution agreed upon by the states that vote to secede, all states would invited then to become part of the new American experiment. Some states may say no. 

Those states that vote to be part of the New America would elect a new government, and dissolve the old United States. 

The states that did not join the new America would keep the old constitution. They would have a new reality to face, but they would have a choice.  The America they tried to return to will be gone forever.   

For the New America, after seceding, the constitution would be renovated to allow reconstruction, and a renewal of democracy in America. It would still be a super power. Washington would likely still be the capital city. Allies, including Canada and the European nations, would be waiting for sanity to return. They would eagerly collaborate in building towards the future.

Together, the alliance of democracies could turn to the hard tasks ahead. There must be a path to global peace. Resources should be directed to healing the planet. There must be an end to poverty.  Justice, and rule of law should become global. All these are ideals to be pursued, even if they always remain beyond grasp.

The point is, the planet needs a New America. Winning the next election is simply a step in the right direction for progressives, but it does not the destination.  What I hear from my American friends is anger and despair.  I do not hear hope.

My scenario of how to create a New America is pure fiction, a fantasy of hope. I really wish I was hearing American themselves offer solutions beyond winning a few seats in Congress.  They, themselves, must re-imagine America in order for it to become reality.

Let me conclude with a word on how Canada can help.  

Canada must focus on what is within our control, and re-build our nation. Mr. Carney will try.  Canadians will support him as a wartime unity government.

He will work with allies on trade and security, resources, and energy. They may tackle artificial intelligence and climate  change. There is much that can be done.

For now, the cataclysm is upon us. The hounds of war are loose. The planet is aflame. Those who believe in democracy must either embrace change, or suffer the consequences.  I am a party of one in a world of eight billion. I suspect I am not alone.

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You have been listening to Canada Re-imagined, season three: After the Cataclysm

I’m Patrick Esmonde-White, totally responsible for this podcast. My theme music is by Tom Plant. My artwork from Tom Evans. My thanks to the Harbinger Media Network for their support.

My hope is that you found this podcast series to be thought-provoking, and cautiously optimistic.  If you did, tell others. This said, thank you for your time. It is the most precious gift you can give. With this, farewell.